* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962021 07/13/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 43 52 60 64 62 57 49 43 35 27 19 N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 43 52 60 64 62 57 49 43 35 27 19 N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 34 39 44 48 46 42 36 29 22 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 8 6 3 5 8 9 14 20 17 19 19 22 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 -1 -3 2 0 0 -1 3 3 6 3 1 0 2 3 SHEAR DIR 57 58 59 57 48 344 301 260 237 222 228 239 222 238 226 237 240 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.4 27.1 26.2 25.4 24.2 23.2 21.5 21.3 21.2 21.4 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 154 154 154 153 149 134 124 116 103 94 76 74 73 75 70 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 69 69 67 68 67 61 58 51 49 47 46 42 39 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 8 11 14 15 15 14 12 11 9 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -28 -26 -21 -19 -21 -21 -24 -18 -14 1 -6 3 -11 -5 -1 -3 200 MB DIV 17 4 10 21 39 41 16 37 9 -25 -20 -21 -29 -13 -33 -10 -18 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 4 1 2 0 0 2 4 4 4 9 9 12 12 11 LAND (KM) 829 851 883 907 954 1010 1005 1028 1039 1036 1046 1078 1093 1177 1289 1454 1550 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.9 12.4 13.0 13.5 14.6 15.7 16.8 17.6 18.5 19.5 20.5 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.4 107.7 109.0 110.3 111.5 113.9 115.8 117.4 118.7 119.7 120.7 122.0 123.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 13 13 12 10 8 7 7 7 9 9 9 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 24 23 15 23 17 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 27. 28. 28. 26. 23. 20. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 10. 13. 12. 11. 8. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 27. 35. 39. 37. 32. 24. 18. 10. 2. -6. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 106.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962021 INVEST 07/13/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.58 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 63.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.7% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 15.3% 14.4% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 21.7% 11.1% 6.0% 3.2% 19.0% 12.0% 14.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 10.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.9% 1.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 16.1% 8.7% 2.1% 1.2% 11.7% 9.2% 4.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962021 INVEST 07/13/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##