* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962021 07/13/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 37 42 47 48 47 45 42 40 34 29 22 15 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 37 42 47 48 47 45 42 40 34 29 22 15 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 30 31 33 35 36 34 32 29 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 14 13 14 8 10 13 11 10 11 12 14 19 16 22 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -1 -1 1 -3 -5 -4 -2 1 0 1 1 2 2 5 SHEAR DIR 55 48 51 50 48 2 337 315 309 315 311 297 265 275 271 269 238 SST (C) 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.1 26.3 25.9 24.1 23.0 22.2 21.1 21.2 20.9 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 151 153 154 154 152 145 126 122 103 91 83 71 72 68 68 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 70 71 70 71 71 69 70 67 63 58 55 51 50 48 46 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -27 -30 -25 -19 -11 -10 -15 -17 -4 7 -5 -7 -12 -9 -7 -13 200 MB DIV -24 3 0 7 25 69 67 43 32 5 -23 -12 -8 1 -33 -38 -35 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -3 -3 0 -2 2 -5 0 3 6 4 5 3 5 2 5 LAND (KM) 853 857 866 887 907 980 973 943 938 924 937 961 963 1021 1096 1178 1273 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.9 11.4 11.9 12.5 13.7 15.1 16.4 17.7 18.8 20.0 21.0 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.9 105.9 107.1 108.3 109.6 112.0 114.2 115.8 117.2 118.5 119.8 120.9 122.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 13 14 13 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 40 26 18 21 26 14 28 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 29. 29. 27. 24. 21. 18. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 22. 23. 22. 20. 17. 15. 9. 4. -3. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.6 104.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962021 INVEST 07/13/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.34 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.23 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.8% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 7.6% 2.6% 1.2% 0.7% 4.2% 10.7% 16.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% Consensus: 0.4% 7.7% 4.7% 0.4% 0.3% 5.7% 7.9% 5.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962021 INVEST 07/13/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##