* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142021 08/26/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 36 36 38 38 42 46 49 54 56 57 55 51 48 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 36 36 38 38 42 46 49 54 56 57 55 51 48 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 30 29 27 26 27 29 31 33 36 38 37 34 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 24 28 27 23 17 8 10 5 4 1 2 8 10 20 21 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 0 -1 3 2 0 2 0 3 1 0 0 -1 5 4 SHEAR DIR 61 42 41 50 52 65 117 168 231 217 140 194 168 177 172 199 196 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.4 28.7 29.0 28.6 29.0 29.2 28.7 27.8 25.1 23.9 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 147 147 148 150 148 151 154 149 153 155 151 142 113 99 101 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.5 -51.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 7 7 5 5 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 90 87 85 83 80 77 77 74 71 67 61 54 53 46 42 37 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 19 17 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 64 79 77 59 80 76 86 95 77 70 37 28 2 13 16 36 200 MB DIV 184 189 143 130 99 124 110 101 31 18 20 -5 12 0 11 -1 14 700-850 TADV -9 -9 -4 -7 -9 -6 -6 0 -2 -1 1 3 5 4 5 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 525 527 530 511 494 404 301 194 183 262 161 61 109 107 178 126 26 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.2 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.7 16.3 17.9 19.4 20.7 21.6 22.5 23.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.5 101.3 102.0 102.7 103.4 104.4 105.3 106.0 107.1 108.2 109.3 110.4 111.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 8 9 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 10 13 19 20 17 15 12 15 21 17 15 17 11 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. -0. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 0. -3. -6. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 8. 8. 12. 16. 19. 24. 26. 27. 25. 21. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.9 100.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142021 FOURTEEN 08/26/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 149.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.95 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 9.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.9% Logistic: 0.2% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 4.3% 5.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.4% 7.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 9.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142021 FOURTEEN 08/26/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##