* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952021 08/25/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 47 59 66 74 77 67 58 55 54 53 52 50 47 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 47 59 66 74 77 67 58 55 54 53 52 50 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 41 47 52 53 49 45 45 45 45 44 43 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 20 21 17 17 13 11 11 11 14 9 11 13 15 13 16 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -2 0 -1 1 -4 2 7 0 -1 -2 -3 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 70 66 60 62 51 60 35 97 94 123 123 115 144 170 206 186 203 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.9 29.0 28.1 28.3 27.8 27.2 26.7 25.5 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 148 148 148 150 149 147 153 154 145 147 141 134 128 116 106 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.0 -52.7 -51.8 -52.0 -51.3 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 4 3 5 4 6 6 8 6 6 3 4 2 3 1 700-500 MB RH 89 88 89 89 87 84 82 81 75 73 68 59 54 47 46 41 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 14 15 16 20 21 22 21 13 7 5 5 5 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 64 63 68 72 78 85 70 84 81 109 99 60 31 28 17 19 26 200 MB DIV 133 146 159 135 139 133 102 104 92 98 73 0 -19 -13 2 -5 2 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -7 -6 -4 0 -3 -5 -10 -4 -1 1 1 2 1 3 1 LAND (KM) 403 419 443 448 453 449 434 415 330 312 306 181 230 191 165 209 271 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 8 8 9 10 9 9 9 10 9 7 7 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 21 18 14 14 16 18 15 12 24 25 11 16 6 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 32. 33. 34. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 13. 2. -7. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 29. 36. 44. 47. 37. 28. 25. 24. 23. 22. 20. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.4 98.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952021 INVEST 08/25/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 142.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.91 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.02 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 2.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.2% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.7% 18.0% Logistic: 0.3% 3.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 1.5% 15.8% 12.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.8% Consensus: 0.1% 7.5% 5.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 10.2% 10.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 10.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 5.0% 9.0% 19.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952021 INVEST 08/25/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##