* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952021 08/25/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 47 56 67 75 78 78 77 73 70 67 65 62 60 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 47 56 67 75 78 78 77 73 70 67 65 62 60 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 45 51 57 60 62 62 62 62 60 56 51 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 21 20 19 19 15 14 14 16 13 4 6 7 6 11 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 0 -1 -5 -1 -1 -6 -5 -4 -2 -3 -2 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 74 60 59 65 56 59 46 59 82 70 104 104 108 143 144 158 166 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.1 28.0 27.1 26.2 25.5 25.1 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 154 152 150 150 149 145 147 150 145 144 134 124 117 113 109 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.0 -52.4 -51.5 -51.8 -51.3 -51.8 -51.2 -51.2 -50.5 -50.7 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 5 6 4 5 4 6 5 6 4 4 2 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 88 89 90 87 88 86 85 80 75 73 72 67 61 59 55 52 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 15 16 21 22 22 20 20 18 16 16 16 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 41 61 66 76 85 74 99 88 92 99 120 92 76 49 43 28 30 200 MB DIV 91 118 120 148 146 122 103 88 94 93 60 17 32 10 -11 -4 -25 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -1 -2 -7 -3 -3 0 5 -5 -3 -2 0 0 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 325 349 378 383 390 395 415 457 438 417 367 249 306 303 295 391 494 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 8 8 10 9 8 8 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 19 22 19 17 15 16 14 12 19 20 11 16 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 32. 32. 32. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 9. 13. 14. 13. 11. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 26. 37. 45. 48. 48. 47. 43. 40. 37. 35. 32. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.9 97.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952021 INVEST 08/25/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.82 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -2.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.3% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.5% Logistic: 0.9% 8.4% 2.4% 1.2% 0.5% 5.1% 23.7% 17.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 3.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.9% 12.3% Consensus: 0.4% 10.8% 6.3% 0.4% 0.2% 1.9% 8.2% 15.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 8.0% 14.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952021 INVEST 08/25/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##