* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952021 08/24/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 35 45 58 72 82 91 95 103 101 94 91 85 82 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 35 45 58 72 82 91 95 103 101 94 91 85 82 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 29 34 40 46 52 60 71 76 72 65 58 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 11 13 15 23 16 17 11 3 4 3 5 13 15 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 -2 1 0 -1 0 3 -1 6 1 SHEAR DIR 73 59 75 78 83 57 37 38 350 350 258 130 67 71 81 87 92 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 28.6 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.7 29.2 28.2 26.5 26.1 26.1 25.8 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 152 155 157 150 148 151 154 153 159 148 129 124 122 118 116 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -52.4 -52.9 -52.1 -52.4 -51.7 -51.7 -50.7 -51.0 -50.3 -51.0 -50.5 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 4 4 5 4 6 4 8 6 7 3 3 2 3 2 700-500 MB RH 86 86 88 90 89 88 85 86 84 80 78 73 71 63 61 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 13 14 16 21 26 27 30 31 36 37 34 35 32 28 850 MB ENV VOR 52 47 46 50 55 62 59 71 64 90 101 111 92 95 109 100 90 200 MB DIV 69 69 101 112 119 153 131 116 75 46 37 43 37 15 -55 -34 -25 700-850 TADV 0 0 4 4 5 -5 -9 -4 -1 -1 -3 -7 -3 -1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 307 329 311 334 363 432 447 385 252 143 230 157 328 505 656 716 729 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.6 13.1 14.3 16.1 18.2 20.3 21.7 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.5 95.2 96.1 97.1 98.1 100.0 101.5 102.8 104.1 105.6 107.9 110.8 113.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 10 10 8 8 9 12 14 15 14 12 8 5 3 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 15 19 20 15 16 16 15 14 25 15 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 32. 35. 38. 40. 41. 42. 42. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 4. 5. 11. 19. 24. 28. 29. 34. 32. 26. 24. 19. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 25. 38. 52. 62. 71. 75. 83. 81. 74. 71. 65. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.8 94.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952021 INVEST 08/24/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 2.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 15.2% 5.1% 2.7% 1.0% 8.9% 42.2% 37.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 13.1% Consensus: 0.5% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.4% 3.1% 14.2% 16.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 7.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952021 INVEST 08/24/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##