* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952021 08/24/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 38 46 57 68 77 83 84 89 93 90 87 84 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 38 46 57 68 77 83 84 89 91 88 85 82 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 31 34 36 40 46 55 64 67 61 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 13 13 15 18 24 18 15 8 4 11 7 11 5 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -1 1 3 1 0 2 2 2 -2 -1 0 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 84 88 74 64 60 59 51 16 25 27 248 224 218 175 169 171 137 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.6 28.2 28.4 28.9 29.4 29.3 30.0 30.0 28.2 25.5 25.3 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 152 153 154 150 145 147 154 159 159 167 167 148 119 116 109 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -52.1 -52.0 -51.3 -50.9 -50.6 -50.6 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 6 7 9 7 6 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 89 88 86 89 89 88 89 85 86 80 79 77 74 67 62 61 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 14 15 17 20 23 25 25 28 32 31 29 26 850 MB ENV VOR 61 52 40 32 46 46 46 44 31 44 54 72 100 73 58 62 58 200 MB DIV 72 77 61 110 132 123 151 126 76 66 3 29 38 38 4 -45 -21 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 0 1 0 -3 -6 0 0 -1 -1 -4 -4 -3 -1 1 LAND (KM) 293 338 353 356 392 439 499 466 370 193 59 94 99 78 240 474 649 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.3 12.2 12.2 13.0 14.4 16.4 18.6 20.8 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.0 94.7 95.5 96.4 97.3 99.1 100.6 101.7 102.7 103.5 104.7 106.5 108.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 8 7 7 10 11 13 14 14 14 12 11 8 HEAT CONTENT 17 15 15 16 17 15 12 19 18 19 19 29 24 7 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 32. 35. 39. 42. 45. 46. 46. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -6. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 20. 22. 24. 21. 17. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 26. 37. 48. 57. 63. 64. 69. 73. 70. 67. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.5 94.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952021 INVEST 08/24/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.64 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 2.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 5.7% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3% 4.8% 20.9% 19.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 3.7% Consensus: 0.1% 2.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.6% 7.0% 7.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952021 INVEST 08/24/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##