* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952021 06/24/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 38 43 52 66 78 83 79 73 67 65 60 56 49 44 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 38 43 52 66 78 83 79 73 67 65 60 56 49 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 36 42 48 51 51 49 48 47 47 45 40 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 14 10 5 3 4 12 19 20 23 20 12 14 17 23 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 1 8 3 1 0 0 -3 -6 -2 0 2 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 21 14 9 3 328 339 163 89 84 82 88 102 120 96 109 104 115 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.7 27.9 26.3 25.5 25.7 25.7 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 152 155 156 154 154 153 149 148 149 141 124 115 117 117 113 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 6 8 6 6 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 80 83 84 83 80 83 80 83 80 81 78 77 74 71 66 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 7 10 13 14 20 23 23 20 16 13 13 12 12 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 27 42 48 53 57 62 63 73 69 86 88 91 64 70 49 49 34 200 MB DIV 62 112 128 109 89 116 125 106 129 151 130 67 44 49 27 30 3 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 -2 -8 -10 -5 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 264 261 259 259 264 286 331 334 340 337 309 313 346 414 401 389 349 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 9 6 5 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 21 19 19 20 20 17 19 18 15 15 17 9 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 34. 36. 36. 36. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -3. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 13. 20. 21. 18. 12. 8. 7. 4. 4. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 18. 27. 41. 53. 58. 54. 48. 42. 40. 35. 31. 24. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 99.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952021 INVEST 06/24/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.69 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.41 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 10.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.5% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 18.8% 25.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 9.4% 5.2% 2.0% 0.8% 20.3% 51.9% 30.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.1% 2.9% 0.9% 0.1% 1.3% 1.0% 10.3% Consensus: 0.3% 11.3% 8.5% 1.0% 0.3% 13.5% 26.1% 13.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 15.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.0% 13.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952021 INVEST 06/24/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##