* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952021 06/24/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 39 48 58 69 76 79 75 69 68 62 59 55 51 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 39 48 58 69 76 79 75 69 68 62 59 55 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 33 37 42 46 48 48 48 48 47 44 41 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 17 16 18 14 8 11 8 8 8 12 14 8 11 13 19 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 4 -1 1 2 -4 -3 -3 -3 -1 -3 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 21 18 12 10 351 259 236 188 135 100 116 103 102 108 89 103 123 SST (C) 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.5 28.3 27.4 25.8 25.1 25.4 25.5 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 154 151 152 156 158 157 154 148 145 135 118 111 114 114 113 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.0 -52.7 -52.5 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 6 6 8 6 8 5 5 3 4 2 2 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 77 80 82 84 84 80 79 76 77 77 76 73 74 71 73 68 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 7 7 7 11 16 19 20 21 18 14 14 12 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 20 21 34 36 43 50 58 98 96 126 102 118 82 79 55 45 41 200 MB DIV 37 48 85 103 95 104 99 81 73 120 91 59 10 51 4 13 8 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 -1 -3 -1 -1 0 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 303 285 271 262 253 232 179 123 74 96 160 242 318 348 335 346 384 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.5 16.4 17.4 18.7 19.7 20.1 20.1 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.4 99.2 99.8 100.5 101.0 102.1 103.0 104.0 105.2 106.3 107.2 108.0 108.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 6 4 3 4 4 4 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 25 23 21 19 19 21 22 18 13 10 13 7 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 26. 30. 33. 35. 36. 36. 36. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 21. 22. 18. 12. 11. 7. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 23. 33. 44. 51. 54. 50. 44. 43. 37. 34. 30. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 98.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952021 INVEST 06/24/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.13 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.9% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 15.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 13.7% 5.6% 2.6% 2.0% 14.9% 41.3% 38.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 3.2% 3.7% 8.2% Consensus: 0.5% 11.3% 6.5% 1.0% 0.7% 11.0% 20.1% 15.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 12.0% 14.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952021 INVEST 06/24/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##