* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952021 06/24/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 48 60 69 80 88 89 86 78 77 75 73 71 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 48 60 69 80 88 89 86 78 77 75 73 71 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 29 33 37 43 51 61 67 67 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 20 21 16 15 13 8 13 10 8 19 20 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 1 4 0 0 1 -3 4 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 13 8 22 37 37 32 39 70 88 63 82 103 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.0 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 161 161 158 155 152 153 154 155 154 152 153 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -54.6 -53.7 -54.0 -53.0 -53.0 -51.9 -52.7 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 5 7 5 6 5 5 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 78 81 82 84 84 84 85 83 82 79 79 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 7 7 10 13 14 18 22 22 21 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 12 11 23 47 40 48 46 75 76 87 84 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 71 57 77 118 104 121 111 162 139 124 121 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -2 -2 0 0 0 -1 -1 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 374 348 323 337 357 369 370 355 268 238 226 208 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 5 5 6 6 5 4 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 25 25 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 15 18 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 36. 38. 40. 43. 45. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 24. 24. 21. 14. 13. 12. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 23. 35. 44. 55. 63. 64. 61. 53. 52. 50. 48. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.4 96.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952021 INVEST 06/24/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.56 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.11 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 16.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.7% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 14.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 5.7% 2.2% 0.9% 0.5% 7.7% 43.2% 40.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 1.4% 2.2% 39.2% Consensus: 0.2% 8.1% 5.2% 0.4% 0.2% 7.6% 19.9% 26.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 9.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952021 INVEST 06/24/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##