* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952021 06/23/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 35 40 51 63 79 88 92 92 86 81 75 71 65 60 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 35 40 51 63 79 88 92 92 82 52 51 47 41 36 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 39 47 56 64 71 75 62 46 48 46 42 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 15 19 18 9 7 3 8 13 18 15 18 12 10 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 2 0 5 4 -4 1 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 28 32 31 24 34 41 360 74 138 104 101 102 92 87 79 68 79 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.0 29.1 29.6 30.1 29.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 26.5 24.8 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 159 161 160 156 152 153 159 165 161 150 150 150 128 110 102 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.2 -54.4 -54.0 -54.2 -53.4 -53.6 -52.6 -52.6 -51.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 6 7 6 7 5 8 5 6 4 5 2 2 0 700-500 MB RH 77 78 79 80 83 84 83 83 82 78 76 77 79 77 75 71 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 11 15 20 23 24 24 20 18 14 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 10 12 27 31 28 46 47 44 56 90 101 142 127 123 70 83 59 200 MB DIV 8 32 67 99 61 97 111 140 117 141 114 131 68 68 19 0 10 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 2 0 -2 -3 7 5 1 0 -5 -1 LAND (KM) 424 367 332 325 320 326 325 291 213 147 39 0 -10 90 271 256 298 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.4 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.6 15.5 16.5 17.7 18.8 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.0 96.1 97.0 97.8 98.7 99.9 100.8 101.4 101.7 102.2 103.0 103.9 105.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 9 9 8 6 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 19 23 25 25 23 21 21 24 29 28 12 11 9 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 16 CX,CY: -13/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 447 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 26. 30. 34. 36. 39. 42. 43. 43. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 1. 3. 9. 17. 23. 24. 24. 18. 14. 8. 6. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 15. 26. 38. 54. 63. 67. 67. 61. 56. 50. 46. 40. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 95.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952021 INVEST 06/23/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.19 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 22.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.3% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 16.2% 0.0% Logistic: 6.1% 28.6% 14.1% 7.8% 6.1% 29.5% 62.9% 72.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 15.5% 3.8% 1.2% 1.1% 20.2% 36.0% 70.5% Consensus: 2.1% 21.5% 11.1% 3.0% 2.4% 21.9% 38.4% 47.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952021 INVEST 06/23/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##