* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952021 06/23/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 22 23 29 42 58 75 81 81 76 69 64 62 62 63 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 22 23 29 42 58 75 81 81 45 33 29 27 27 31 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 21 24 28 34 38 41 31 28 27 27 27 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 14 12 12 20 12 8 4 9 5 13 12 8 2 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 0 1 0 -1 0 -1 -1 2 0 -3 -2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 14 13 31 44 31 33 40 32 94 148 157 142 187 152 115 34 81 SST (C) 28.8 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.9 29.2 29.6 28.9 27.1 26.8 27.2 27.5 28.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 149 151 153 155 154 150 151 155 160 152 134 130 135 138 143 151 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.4 -53.9 -54.3 -53.3 -53.6 -52.4 -52.6 -51.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.9 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 5 7 4 6 700-500 MB RH 73 75 77 79 80 83 83 83 85 83 77 75 73 75 77 76 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 8 12 17 22 23 21 17 12 8 6 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 9 2 6 10 20 32 31 30 27 73 95 108 107 119 99 74 200 MB DIV -15 -3 0 15 51 77 132 152 162 120 175 145 107 93 60 22 -4 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -3 -4 -5 -2 0 -1 0 0 -1 -5 5 1 0 -6 -3 LAND (KM) 475 506 537 502 493 477 450 406 304 154 3 -136 -221 -267 -178 -21 108 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.4 10.9 11.2 11.4 11.8 12.3 12.9 13.9 15.3 16.8 18.3 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.8 94.4 95.6 96.6 97.4 98.9 99.7 100.1 100.1 99.9 99.9 100.2 100.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 14 12 9 8 6 3 5 6 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 12 17 21 23 20 20 21 26 18 4 2 3 5 7 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 310 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 32. 36. 38. 40. 41. 43. 44. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 0. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 6. 14. 22. 24. 21. 14. 7. 2. -0. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 3. 9. 22. 38. 55. 61. 61. 56. 49. 44. 42. 42. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.0 92.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952021 INVEST 06/23/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 21.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 3.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 1.7% 8.0% 35.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% Consensus: 0.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 2.7% 12.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952021 INVEST 06/23/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##