* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP142020 08/29/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 35 33 30 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 35 33 30 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 36 33 30 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 22 22 19 16 13 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 -1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 73 87 94 105 121 130 123 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.0 25.0 24.0 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 130 128 126 122 110 100 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.7 -50.8 -51.1 -51.0 -50.7 -50.8 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 74 70 63 55 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 12 11 9 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 -6 -6 -1 2 26 25 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 -4 5 -4 1 20 10 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -6 -6 -2 -1 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 523 447 375 326 292 296 265 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.4 22.1 22.8 23.5 24.4 25.1 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.6 114.6 114.5 114.7 114.8 115.2 115.6 116.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 6 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 783 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -17. -17. -17. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 3. 3. 2. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -10. -16. -24. -33. -37. -39. -40. -41. -40. -41. -39. -37. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.6 114.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142020 ISELLE 08/29/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.44 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142020 ISELLE 08/29/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##