* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP142020 08/29/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 33 30 28 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 37 33 30 28 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 37 34 31 28 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 24 23 20 19 14 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 0 -1 3 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 67 75 83 96 105 124 127 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.1 26.7 26.5 26.4 25.7 24.5 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 134 129 127 126 118 105 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 -50.7 -50.9 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 2 2 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 74 73 73 73 67 60 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 13 12 11 8 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 9 -10 0 -1 20 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 2 -4 5 8 23 7 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -5 -6 -6 -1 -2 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 598 525 451 390 338 301 293 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.7 21.4 22.1 22.8 23.9 24.8 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.8 114.8 114.7 114.8 114.8 115.1 115.6 116.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 7 7 7 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 755 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -12. -17. -25. -32. -34. -35. -36. -36. -36. -36. -34. -33. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.9 114.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142020 ISELLE 08/29/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.47 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.13 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.18 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142020 ISELLE 08/29/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##