* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP142020 08/29/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 33 31 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 33 31 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 37 34 31 28 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 28 25 23 20 14 11 9 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 2 2 0 0 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 68 71 78 92 100 123 127 116 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.6 27.0 26.5 26.1 25.5 24.7 24.1 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 139 133 128 123 116 107 101 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -50.9 -50.8 -51.0 -50.6 -50.7 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 72 74 73 73 67 58 51 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 13 13 10 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 23 4 -12 -5 17 41 34 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 13 -8 -6 14 15 21 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -7 -5 -5 -1 0 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 665 596 524 461 406 370 355 334 290 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.1 20.8 21.6 22.3 23.6 24.5 25.1 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.2 115.1 115.0 115.1 115.2 115.7 116.2 116.7 117.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 7 6 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -12. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -9. -15. -23. -31. -37. -38. -40. -40. -40. -40. -39. -38. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.4 115.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142020 ISELLE 08/29/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.48 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142020 ISELLE 08/29/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##