* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP142020 08/28/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 47 44 42 35 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 48 47 44 42 35 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 47 44 35 27 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 25 23 23 27 21 18 16 13 15 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 7 6 3 0 0 3 1 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 64 63 66 68 79 94 112 133 117 110 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.4 27.9 27.2 26.1 25.5 25.1 24.9 24.7 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 147 142 135 123 116 111 109 107 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.9 -50.4 -50.7 -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 -50.6 -50.9 -50.7 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 66 69 70 72 70 65 56 50 44 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 17 16 17 14 10 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 84 67 44 24 2 30 54 47 43 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 69 61 38 4 17 20 29 -5 -32 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -5 -3 -6 -6 -5 -2 0 -1 -5 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 783 717 654 588 503 399 402 418 466 491 500 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.6 19.2 20.0 20.8 22.2 23.3 24.0 24.0 24.2 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.4 115.2 114.9 114.7 114.6 115.0 115.9 116.5 117.3 117.9 118.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 7 6 4 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 11 10 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 2. -1. -5. -9. -13. -14. -15. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -6. -8. -15. -23. -30. -37. -41. -45. -46. -46. -46. -44. -43. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.0 115.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142020 ISELLE 08/28/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.50 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.25 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142020 ISELLE 08/28/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##