* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP142020 08/27/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 43 43 40 38 32 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 43 43 40 38 32 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 45 44 40 34 27 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 26 20 21 22 25 24 20 21 20 17 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 4 6 2 0 -1 1 1 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 79 79 68 62 62 65 92 100 123 119 102 104 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 27.7 26.5 26.0 25.9 26.3 26.5 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 151 150 149 148 139 127 121 119 122 124 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.7 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 65 65 68 68 72 72 71 64 56 52 52 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 15 17 16 15 12 10 9 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 78 77 78 77 56 21 11 38 59 53 56 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 74 38 60 65 47 21 0 27 14 -3 -3 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -4 -5 -3 -12 -3 -7 1 -1 -1 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 900 853 807 768 729 630 533 456 468 516 559 591 631 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.4 17.7 18.1 18.4 19.2 20.4 21.6 22.3 22.5 22.2 22.1 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.9 115.7 115.4 115.2 115.1 114.6 114.4 115.1 116.0 116.7 117.0 117.3 117.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 4 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 17 15 13 12 11 6 1 0 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -17. -18. -18. -18. -19. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -13. -19. -23. -27. -30. -31. -31. -30. -29. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.0 115.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142020 ISELLE 08/27/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.26 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142020 ISELLE 08/27/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##