* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP142020 08/26/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 36 36 33 34 33 32 29 26 24 21 22 23 24 26 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 36 36 33 34 33 32 29 26 24 21 22 23 24 26 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 36 35 32 29 26 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 31 28 30 31 29 27 30 25 23 22 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 2 1 3 7 0 1 0 0 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 71 82 83 74 70 66 69 71 80 93 106 117 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.1 26.9 26.5 26.2 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 152 155 156 157 154 152 151 143 130 127 123 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 63 63 67 70 75 75 77 76 72 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 14 15 14 16 15 15 13 12 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 68 76 73 70 79 76 51 45 28 29 39 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 59 52 49 53 51 59 73 37 21 13 30 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 0 -1 -4 -4 -5 -11 -6 -8 -1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1113 1073 1034 988 942 827 705 589 462 432 435 458 478 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.5 17.2 18.0 18.8 20.0 20.9 21.5 22.0 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.9 116.7 116.5 116.2 115.9 115.1 114.3 113.6 113.2 113.6 114.6 115.6 116.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 5 6 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 18 22 24 24 18 14 12 8 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 20. 22. 24. 25. 25. 26. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -13. -18. -22. -25. -26. -26. -27. -27. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -13. -12. -11. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.3 116.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142020 ISELLE 08/26/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142020 ISELLE 08/26/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##