* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142020 08/26/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 31 31 29 31 31 28 26 23 21 22 24 25 27 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 31 31 29 31 31 28 26 23 21 22 24 25 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 31 29 27 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 22 29 24 24 26 27 30 23 20 17 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 4 2 1 8 3 0 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 73 76 86 90 74 70 68 84 81 90 100 123 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.3 28.9 28.7 27.2 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 153 155 156 156 152 151 134 125 124 123 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -50.9 -51.4 -50.8 -51.4 -50.7 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 59 61 64 69 74 77 73 76 68 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 15 14 15 13 14 14 13 12 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 62 68 77 79 83 75 53 43 34 36 55 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 66 85 49 35 62 32 72 31 52 34 18 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 3 1 1 -3 0 -2 -8 -6 -4 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1140 1105 1069 1027 984 900 758 572 436 391 414 467 543 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 4 4 5 7 8 7 4 5 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 17 19 22 23 21 15 12 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 26. 28. 28. 29. 30. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -9. -14. -18. -20. -21. -22. -22. -22. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. -1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -8. -6. -5. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.3 117.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142020 FOURTEEN 08/26/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142020 FOURTEEN 08/26/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##