* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP132021 08/24/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 24 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 27 25 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 15 11 9 10 4 4 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 3 4 0 0 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 70 80 81 62 61 122 220 236 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.7 25.4 25.1 25.1 24.9 24.7 24.8 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 120 117 114 114 112 110 112 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 58 57 57 55 52 47 44 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 9 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 49 43 45 45 51 40 47 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 6 -10 -13 -8 -16 -51 -48 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 5 2 4 7 6 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 804 892 985 1058 1126 1291 1476 1722 1976 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.3 19.8 19.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.6 119.7 120.7 121.7 122.7 124.9 127.0 129.5 131.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 14. 12. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -11. -16. -20. -24. -25. -26. -27. -26. -26. -23. -21. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.5 118.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132021 MARTY 08/24/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.43 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.93 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132021 MARTY 08/24/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##