* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP132021 08/24/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 38 37 34 29 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 38 37 34 29 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 40 38 36 30 25 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 12 11 11 8 0 6 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 4 3 2 2 2 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 74 63 67 76 82 57 71 170 251 270 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.7 25.7 25.2 25.3 24.9 25.3 24.7 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 126 123 120 120 115 116 112 117 111 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 64 65 61 58 56 54 49 47 43 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 14 13 10 10 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 45 41 47 40 28 49 38 36 36 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 4 -2 -5 -4 -18 -10 -34 -41 -21 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 0 0 8 8 3 7 2 8 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 538 620 717 804 897 1047 1213 1389 1595 1848 2142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.7 20.7 20.7 20.8 20.8 20.7 20.6 20.6 20.3 19.6 18.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.1 116.4 117.7 118.8 119.9 121.8 124.0 126.2 128.4 130.8 133.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 10 10 9 10 10 11 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 400 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -11. -14. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -3. -6. -11. -15. -18. -22. -27. -29. -29. -28. -26. -22. -20. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.7 115.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132021 MARTY 08/24/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.40 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132021 MARTY 08/24/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##