* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP132021 08/23/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 34 33 30 27 24 22 19 17 19 21 23 27 30 34 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 34 33 30 27 24 22 19 17 19 21 23 27 30 34 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 36 34 31 26 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 10 11 10 3 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 1 3 3 4 2 2 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 27 37 63 74 76 82 63 95 189 212 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.1 26.6 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.3 25.4 25.1 25.6 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 136 131 127 125 121 116 117 114 120 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.8 -50.6 -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 67 67 67 65 59 58 57 56 51 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 16 15 14 12 10 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 68 50 41 34 56 30 40 29 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 10 8 20 5 -18 -1 -14 -38 -57 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -12 -3 1 1 3 7 4 6 2 10 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 329 417 513 591 686 877 1038 1186 1359 1589 1859 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.6 20.7 20.7 20.6 20.4 20.4 20.2 20.0 19.6 19.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.7 113.2 114.6 115.9 117.2 119.4 121.3 123.2 125.3 127.8 130.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 12 11 10 9 9 11 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 16. 15. 13. 13. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -18. -16. -14. -12. -8. -5. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.4 111.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132021 MARTY 08/23/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.53 2.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.56 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.26 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.66 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 14.0% 9.6% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 5.1% 3.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132021 MARTY 08/23/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##