* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERNAN EP132020 08/28/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 33 33 33 30 27 27 26 24 25 24 24 25 25 27 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 33 33 33 30 27 27 26 24 25 24 24 25 25 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 32 30 29 26 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 18 17 20 21 18 19 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 0 0 1 -1 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 62 55 54 42 49 65 88 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.7 27.7 26.9 26.8 26.5 26.2 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 141 133 131 128 125 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.3 -50.7 -50.5 -50.1 -50.9 -50.7 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 8 7 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 76 75 71 73 77 74 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 51 47 39 56 42 19 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 78 78 60 44 39 1 19 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -11 -9 -13 -11 -13 -5 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 100 184 256 166 100 179 298 392 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.7 21.2 21.6 22.0 22.5 22.5 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.5 108.3 109.2 110.1 111.8 113.8 115.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 25 12 3 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -8. -12. -15. -16. -16. -16. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -5. -8. -8. -9. -11. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.1 106.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132020 HERNAN 08/28/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.01 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.48 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -3.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 11.6% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 4.5% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132020 HERNAN 08/28/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##