* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERNAN EP132020 08/27/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 33 33 33 31 28 28 27 26 26 27 26 26 27 29 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 33 33 33 31 28 28 27 26 26 27 26 26 27 29 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 30 29 27 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 21 21 19 20 19 19 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 3 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 67 65 59 50 46 58 96 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.7 28.2 27.6 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 146 140 132 131 128 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.0 -50.4 -50.8 -50.5 -50.7 -50.9 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 7 4 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 78 76 75 72 75 74 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 53 50 43 45 60 19 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 102 76 62 50 29 10 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -14 -14 -8 -5 -11 -15 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 118 142 198 276 191 122 268 378 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.8 20.4 20.9 21.4 22.3 22.5 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.2 106.9 107.6 108.3 109.1 111.0 113.1 114.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 9 9 10 10 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 20 16 11 3 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 22. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -9. -14. -17. -18. -19. -19. -20. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.2 106.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132020 HERNAN 08/27/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132020 HERNAN 08/27/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##