* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERNAN EP132020 08/27/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 31 30 30 29 28 26 24 24 24 24 25 27 30 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 32 31 30 30 29 28 26 24 24 24 24 25 27 30 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 35 34 32 29 27 24 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 29 26 20 22 25 16 12 15 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 4 9 6 5 -1 3 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 73 73 76 74 76 82 87 91 110 116 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.1 26.4 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 156 156 154 145 127 123 123 122 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.9 -50.9 -50.6 -50.2 -50.8 -50.2 -50.8 -50.3 -50.8 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 10 6 8 3 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 81 79 76 77 75 72 76 76 77 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 11 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 24 31 53 65 68 76 62 35 36 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 93 72 66 77 72 67 63 28 30 58 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -8 -12 -9 0 2 -14 -9 0 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 173 130 96 98 107 259 91 177 273 353 428 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.6 20.2 21.3 22.1 22.4 22.7 22.6 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.8 105.8 105.8 106.3 106.7 108.1 109.8 111.7 113.7 114.8 115.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 7 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 23 26 29 29 19 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 22. 22. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -5. -8. -12. -15. -16. -16. -16. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.0 105.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132020 HERNAN 08/27/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.27 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 29.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.09 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132020 HERNAN 08/27/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##