* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERNAN EP132020 08/26/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 34 33 31 31 30 29 27 24 24 24 24 25 27 29 V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 34 33 31 31 30 29 27 24 24 24 24 25 27 29 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 35 34 33 30 28 25 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 30 30 27 27 21 22 15 16 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 4 1 5 5 -1 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 82 74 70 74 81 69 68 72 103 104 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 28.4 26.9 26.2 26.4 26.2 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 151 154 156 148 132 125 127 123 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.9 -51.2 -51.3 -50.8 -50.7 -50.7 -50.7 -50.7 -50.8 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 8 7 7 4 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 83 82 80 78 77 74 77 74 75 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 11 11 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 19 28 39 61 71 67 76 43 38 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 95 99 79 60 66 66 82 48 31 40 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -5 -6 -8 -8 -10 -14 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 226 194 164 134 114 190 192 106 274 333 355 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.8 19.4 20.7 21.5 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.9 105.9 105.8 106.1 106.3 107.5 108.9 110.8 112.9 114.1 114.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 5 7 8 8 9 9 7 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 19 20 25 28 27 4 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 22. 23. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -8. -12. -16. -19. -20. -21. -21. -21. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.5 105.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132020 HERNAN 08/26/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 21.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.21 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132020 HERNAN 08/26/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##