* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN EP132020 08/26/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 28 28 28 25 25 25 23 20 17 15 15 17 19 22 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 28 28 28 25 25 25 23 20 17 15 15 17 19 22 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 24 22 20 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 25 25 27 26 23 23 16 11 16 18 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 7 4 2 5 0 -1 0 3 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 83 79 72 70 71 78 75 93 108 111 119 123 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.1 28.0 27.3 26.3 25.0 25.4 26.1 26.1 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 150 153 154 143 136 126 112 115 122 121 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -50.4 -51.0 -50.3 -50.9 -50.4 -51.1 -50.9 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 6 6 9 6 8 3 3 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 80 82 82 80 77 76 73 74 70 76 70 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 14 11 11 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 20 11 19 27 55 63 69 55 40 42 46 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 97 77 93 60 45 56 59 63 30 27 25 20 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -2 -6 -6 -4 -6 -8 -1 9 6 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 273 223 176 157 142 187 220 59 145 213 327 399 438 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.2 18.7 19.1 20.4 21.4 22.4 23.3 23.3 22.5 22.2 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.4 106.2 106.1 106.2 106.4 107.5 108.6 110.2 112.2 113.6 114.3 115.0 115.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 5 7 8 8 10 8 5 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 18 20 24 26 17 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 24. 24. 24. 24. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -10. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. -19. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -5. -5. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -15. -13. -11. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.3 106.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132020 THIRTEEN 08/26/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132020 THIRTEEN 08/26/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##