* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN EP132020 08/26/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 30 29 28 26 26 29 30 30 30 31 31 33 35 38 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 30 29 28 26 26 29 30 30 30 31 31 33 35 38 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 25 22 21 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 27 25 24 25 17 19 17 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 5 4 4 5 4 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 74 80 77 71 70 89 84 93 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.1 29.3 27.9 27.3 26.7 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 152 154 156 142 136 129 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -50.6 -50.6 -50.4 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 6 7 7 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 77 79 79 79 77 74 71 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 16 14 12 13 10 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 25 27 22 26 42 79 71 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 108 85 70 71 53 43 75 64 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -4 -5 -6 -6 -5 -6 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 299 245 191 169 151 191 244 103 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 17 21 25 29 15 11 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -8. -12. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.3 106.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132020 THIRTEEN 08/26/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132020 THIRTEEN 08/26/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##