* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/20/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 41 40 35 33 32 34 36 35 32 28 V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 41 40 35 33 32 34 36 35 32 28 V (KT) LGEM 45 42 39 37 35 30 26 23 22 21 20 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 10 11 11 8 4 2 2 6 13 26 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 1 7 5 3 6 6 0 4 8 4 SHEAR DIR 239 248 250 231 218 258 164 199 316 251 214 206 206 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.9 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.7 27.1 27.5 27.4 27.4 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 130 130 131 129 128 129 133 137 136 136 130 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 57 57 56 56 56 54 53 50 47 47 47 44 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 15 15 13 12 12 12 12 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 23 20 15 18 7 6 13 33 61 72 83 66 95 200 MB DIV 28 33 52 60 48 -4 -9 6 40 34 40 26 61 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 1958 1956 1955 1962 1970 2033 2122 2242 2118 2014 1918 1803 1676 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.5 17.7 17.9 17.6 17.1 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.6 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 129.5 129.9 130.2 130.5 130.8 131.7 132.5 133.7 134.9 135.9 136.8 137.8 138.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 10 13 20 26 26 15 9 10 12 15 17 18 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -8. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -10. -12. -13. -11. -9. -10. -13. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.4 129.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/20/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.42 2.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.55 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.41 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 232.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.35 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 20.4% 19.4% 13.9% 9.5% 16.6% 16.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 4.3% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 8.2% 7.2% 4.9% 3.3% 5.6% 5.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/20/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##