* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/15/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 110 109 104 97 83 72 63 58 57 50 43 38 V (KT) LAND 105 110 109 104 97 83 72 63 58 57 50 43 38 V (KT) LGEM 105 110 107 101 93 79 68 60 56 51 47 41 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 17 16 16 12 11 6 4 5 13 22 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 4 2 2 0 0 4 2 4 5 5 0 SHEAR DIR 30 21 28 51 62 32 38 35 256 251 227 233 233 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.2 25.9 26.1 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 136 137 136 130 129 129 128 123 120 123 130 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -53.4 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 60 59 61 61 58 59 57 56 57 55 52 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 22 21 20 19 18 18 19 17 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 38 31 21 14 6 0 0 -7 16 26 22 20 29 200 MB DIV 18 5 -14 -6 -7 -20 -14 -20 1 5 11 30 16 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -6 -5 -2 -1 -3 0 0 1 4 7 4 LAND (KM) 1216 1260 1305 1341 1379 1444 1499 1545 1588 1642 1731 1823 1947 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 16.9 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.6 17.7 18.0 18.1 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 120.4 121.0 121.6 122.2 122.9 123.9 124.7 125.7 126.4 127.3 128.5 129.7 131.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 6 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 8 7 7 4 3 4 3 0 0 0 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -18. -25. -32. -38. -43. -46. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -7. -3. 1. 4. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 11. 10. 6. 2. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -2. -4. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 4. -1. -8. -22. -33. -42. -47. -48. -55. -62. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 16.9 120.4 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/15/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.27 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 539.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.30 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.1% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 3.4% 2.9% 1.1% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.3% 5.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 10.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/15/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##