* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/13/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 43 47 50 53 51 51 51 52 50 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 43 47 50 53 51 51 51 52 50 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 36 36 37 37 36 35 34 34 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 3 3 7 2 6 9 2 9 14 12 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 1 2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 206 250 307 59 48 26 352 23 49 289 288 276 279 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 27.9 27.7 27.4 26.7 26.6 25.9 25.9 26.4 26.1 25.4 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 143 141 138 130 129 122 121 126 123 115 114 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 68 68 67 62 55 56 53 54 51 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 17 17 19 19 18 20 18 18 19 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 12 17 26 35 37 36 50 47 49 36 44 51 54 200 MB DIV 66 54 45 35 18 31 10 -7 5 -7 -3 19 7 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 0 2 -5 -3 3 0 1 4 1 LAND (KM) 761 789 825 861 906 969 1068 1180 1256 1320 1365 1456 1585 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.3 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.3 19.6 20.1 20.7 21.0 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 113.1 114.0 114.8 115.7 116.6 118.3 120.2 122.1 123.5 124.9 126.0 127.3 128.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 9 7 6 3 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 6. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 16. 16. 16. 17. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.7 113.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/13/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.83 6.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 23.5% 23.1% 17.5% 11.3% 20.1% 20.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 10.7% 5.9% 1.9% 0.5% 1.9% 0.8% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 11.4% 9.7% 6.5% 3.9% 7.3% 6.9% 0.3% DTOPS: 3.0% 17.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 7.0% 6.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/13/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##