* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/23/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 35 33 31 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 37 35 33 31 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 37 34 29 27 22 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 38 42 45 45 44 43 43 35 27 23 23 27 30 34 38 46 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 0 1 2 0 4 6 1 1 5 7 5 6 2 2 SHEAR DIR 242 244 240 240 242 246 255 266 256 269 255 245 235 236 238 247 252 SST (C) 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.8 27.2 27.0 27.4 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 125 127 130 134 132 137 138 135 133 135 138 140 140 142 146 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 28 25 23 22 20 20 21 25 25 29 32 39 41 43 45 45 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 -5 -1 -3 -10 -16 -11 -5 5 14 21 25 17 11 6 2 -3 200 MB DIV -14 2 -17 -26 -32 -36 -21 -31 -2 21 38 12 24 12 8 -3 2 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 -6 -7 -5 -15 -18 -18 -18 -17 -14 -13 -12 -14 -15 -14 LAND (KM) 120 56 30 5 6 61 146 244 400 556 714 837 941 1057 1182 1344 1513 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.1 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.0 20.5 19.8 18.9 18.0 17.3 16.9 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 154.8 155.6 156.2 156.7 157.3 158.6 159.9 161.2 162.5 163.7 165.1 166.3 167.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 6 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 2 4 8 13 8 18 23 16 19 35 47 45 31 18 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 16. 16. 16. 17. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -13. -22. -31. -36. -39. -40. -40. -41. -42. -46. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -9. -14. -22. -32. -41. -44. -45. -46. -47. -48. -50. -54. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.0 154.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/23/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.42 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 416.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 81.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.09 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/23/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##