* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/20/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 32 29 27 25 23 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 35 32 29 27 25 23 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 33 29 26 24 23 22 21 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 11 11 11 15 19 24 30 38 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 1 3 4 6 6 1 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 264 252 251 248 233 227 208 221 237 248 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.4 24.6 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.5 25.9 26.0 26.4 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 109 110 112 113 113 119 123 124 128 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -53.5 -54.0 -54.6 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 33 33 31 30 30 30 31 33 31 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 12 11 11 11 9 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 48 34 33 35 33 29 29 8 -4 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 14 19 2 -8 6 -11 6 1 10 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 0 2 2 2 5 1 -1 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1516 1354 1192 1057 923 679 460 285 157 83 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.7 21.1 21.3 21.9 22.1 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 140.3 141.9 143.4 144.7 146.0 148.4 150.7 152.8 155.1 157.3 159.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -5. -12. -18. -19. -20. -21. -22. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -9. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -22. -27. -33. -35. -37. -39. -41. -43. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.8 140.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/20/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.28 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 373.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 64.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/20/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##