* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/19/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 69 62 57 53 46 42 39 36 36 31 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 69 62 57 53 46 42 39 36 36 31 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 69 62 57 53 48 45 43 40 37 34 31 28 25 24 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 4 6 6 6 8 11 12 17 18 26 28 39 44 47 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 1 1 2 2 1 8 5 1 0 -5 -8 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 191 236 236 254 244 256 245 237 208 209 233 245 241 243 242 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.7 24.2 23.8 24.2 24.3 24.6 24.9 25.1 25.8 26.2 26.7 26.4 26.9 27.0 26.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 106 102 107 107 110 112 114 122 126 131 129 134 134 131 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -53.2 -53.7 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 36 33 33 32 28 29 29 27 30 30 29 30 34 38 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 16 16 16 14 14 13 12 13 11 11 8 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 43 34 36 42 29 38 29 29 16 1 -16 -29 -29 -33 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -24 -19 -2 9 9 -9 2 -9 1 -11 2 1 -36 -9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 2 0 -1 1 4 3 5 0 -3 0 -7 1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2020 1861 1704 1537 1372 1076 849 628 459 320 236 168 246 464 693 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.9 20.3 20.6 20.8 21.1 21.5 21.9 22.3 22.7 23.2 23.6 23.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.5 137.0 138.5 140.1 141.7 144.6 146.9 149.3 151.5 153.7 156.1 158.7 161.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 12 11 11 10 11 12 12 13 11 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 7 10 3 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -19. -21. -22. -24. -25. -26. -27. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. -0. -3. -8. -13. -19. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -10. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -18. -22. -29. -33. -36. -39. -39. -44. -47. -53. -58. -62. -63. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 19.5 135.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/19/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 717.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.09 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/19/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##