* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/17/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 71 69 66 60 52 47 42 41 39 39 38 38 37 33 32 V (KT) LAND 75 73 71 69 66 60 52 47 42 41 39 39 38 38 37 33 32 V (KT) LGEM 75 73 71 68 65 58 50 44 41 38 36 35 33 31 29 27 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 4 5 4 3 6 10 12 16 21 19 20 21 32 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 2 3 1 2 1 4 2 4 0 5 0 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 150 145 182 230 289 182 256 214 254 235 233 220 214 215 235 236 243 SST (C) 26.7 26.9 26.5 26.0 25.7 24.5 23.5 23.9 24.3 24.8 25.1 25.9 26.1 26.8 26.4 26.5 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 130 133 129 124 121 110 99 103 107 112 114 122 124 132 128 128 131 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.6 -53.8 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 43 41 41 41 41 39 38 35 32 32 33 32 34 32 34 37 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 21 22 20 19 17 15 13 14 13 13 13 13 12 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 52 45 50 52 48 53 42 40 33 35 17 20 7 2 -11 -19 -31 200 MB DIV -16 -12 0 -4 -9 -3 -23 3 0 -7 4 -9 0 -8 15 -25 -19 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 -2 -5 1 -1 0 3 5 2 5 4 1 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 1734 1794 1857 1943 2033 2072 1766 1477 1215 960 722 541 440 302 206 145 226 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.3 18.6 19.6 20.5 21.0 21.5 21.9 22.1 22.3 22.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.8 128.8 129.7 131.0 132.2 135.0 137.9 140.7 143.3 145.9 148.4 150.5 152.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 11 12 13 15 14 13 12 12 11 8 9 11 12 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 2 2 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -9. -14. -18. -21. -23. -25. -27. -28. -29. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 1. -1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -13. -14. -12. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -23. -28. -33. -34. -36. -36. -37. -37. -38. -42. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.6 127.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/17/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.11 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 679.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.14 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.50 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 5.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/17/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##