* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/17/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 82 80 78 73 66 58 50 43 40 39 38 38 37 33 31 V (KT) LAND 85 83 82 80 78 73 66 58 50 43 40 39 38 38 37 33 31 V (KT) LGEM 85 83 80 78 75 69 61 52 44 38 34 33 31 30 29 27 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 1 4 4 5 5 1 3 5 7 7 13 15 19 24 26 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 0 0 0 5 2 3 2 5 1 3 1 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 266 174 157 164 147 229 346 204 226 253 268 256 250 241 216 216 225 SST (C) 25.7 26.0 26.3 26.8 27.1 26.0 25.1 23.9 23.4 23.9 24.3 24.5 24.6 25.0 25.2 25.5 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 120 123 126 132 135 124 115 103 97 102 106 108 108 113 115 117 119 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 49 47 46 43 41 41 39 39 36 34 32 33 33 33 32 30 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 25 24 22 23 21 19 16 14 13 12 12 12 12 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 31 45 54 59 52 61 47 53 43 38 39 22 17 10 4 -14 -21 200 MB DIV -19 -23 -13 -20 -7 -10 5 -15 -3 0 -15 -1 -3 -2 -8 9 8 700-850 TADV 2 1 -1 -3 -1 -2 -1 -1 2 1 3 4 5 7 4 4 6 LAND (KM) 1520 1584 1650 1715 1783 1919 2088 1954 1675 1423 1191 1000 839 686 556 470 470 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.7 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.6 19.5 20.3 21.1 21.7 22.3 22.8 23.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.0 125.9 126.7 127.7 128.7 130.9 133.4 136.1 138.8 141.3 143.7 145.8 147.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 12 13 13 13 12 11 9 9 9 9 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -12. -18. -24. -29. -32. -36. -38. -41. -43. -46. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 7. 5. 2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -12. -19. -27. -35. -42. -45. -46. -47. -47. -48. -52. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 17.7 125.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/17/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.01 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.09 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 695.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.12 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.44 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 5.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/17/21 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 67 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##