* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/16/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 93 91 88 86 82 76 72 65 58 51 46 44 44 45 42 39 V (KT) LAND 95 93 91 88 86 82 76 72 65 58 51 46 44 44 45 42 39 V (KT) LGEM 95 92 89 84 80 74 69 63 57 49 42 36 31 28 26 24 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 1 1 3 3 3 3 2 6 1 4 4 7 6 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -3 -1 1 2 4 0 10 6 9 10 13 8 3 SHEAR DIR 31 92 196 206 110 149 110 297 123 191 172 210 208 258 266 268 244 SST (C) 26.2 26.5 26.3 25.7 26.1 26.4 26.8 25.9 25.0 23.6 23.2 23.5 23.9 24.6 24.7 24.7 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 125 128 126 120 124 127 132 123 114 99 95 97 101 108 109 109 110 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 54 53 55 52 49 48 44 43 43 42 40 37 34 31 29 28 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 25 25 25 26 24 23 21 19 16 14 12 11 12 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 1 14 21 28 30 52 52 58 49 41 29 28 28 13 9 -3 -12 200 MB DIV 0 -24 -22 -7 -15 -34 -2 -9 5 -2 -10 -12 -5 -4 -6 -14 -16 700-850 TADV 2 3 3 4 1 0 0 -4 0 2 0 0 3 1 2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1175 1271 1368 1459 1542 1650 1790 1917 2081 2017 1779 1572 1396 1234 1070 942 846 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.4 18.1 17.9 17.6 17.7 17.8 18.5 19.3 20.2 21.2 22.1 22.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.6 122.5 123.4 124.3 125.2 126.8 128.7 130.8 133.2 135.5 137.8 139.9 141.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 9 10 11 12 12 11 10 9 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 479 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -11. -16. -22. -28. -34. -40. -44. -47. -50. -53. -56. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -5. -8. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -19. -23. -30. -37. -44. -49. -51. -51. -50. -53. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.7 121.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/16/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.10 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.96 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 699.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.12 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/16/21 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 75 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##