* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/15/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 94 88 84 83 78 75 71 69 61 56 48 44 40 38 34 29 V (KT) LAND 100 94 88 84 83 78 75 71 69 61 56 48 44 40 38 34 29 V (KT) LGEM 100 93 87 82 78 70 64 59 55 51 45 37 31 25 21 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 8 8 5 2 4 4 5 3 3 3 6 3 8 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 -2 -2 0 -1 2 0 7 7 9 11 14 18 17 19 SHEAR DIR 97 100 59 32 31 28 99 100 109 297 160 173 170 204 202 239 211 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.1 26.1 26.2 25.2 25.4 25.8 25.9 25.0 23.6 22.7 22.9 23.1 23.6 23.5 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 124 124 125 114 117 121 122 114 99 90 91 93 97 95 95 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 2 1 2 2 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 60 60 57 54 53 53 51 50 47 47 46 41 37 31 28 27 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 25 26 27 27 27 25 24 21 20 16 14 12 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -2 3 4 14 29 51 62 65 62 56 44 46 41 24 17 9 200 MB DIV 11 6 -3 -5 -37 -7 -12 -13 -8 -28 -2 -13 -8 -6 -5 -6 -15 700-850 TADV 6 6 3 1 1 3 3 0 1 0 2 -3 4 3 3 0 -8 LAND (KM) 899 988 1081 1171 1263 1436 1582 1712 1852 1982 2131 1903 1672 1504 1384 1285 1214 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.2 19.1 19.0 18.8 18.2 17.9 18.0 18.2 19.0 20.0 21.0 21.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.7 119.8 120.8 121.8 122.7 124.4 126.1 127.9 129.8 131.9 134.3 136.6 138.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 11 12 12 10 8 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -14. -21. -28. -34. -39. -45. -50. -54. -57. -61. -66. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. -1. -2. -5. -7. -12. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -16. -17. -22. -25. -29. -31. -39. -44. -52. -56. -60. -62. -66. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 19.3 118.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/15/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 749.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.06 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/15/21 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 7 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##