* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/12/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 63 65 67 70 72 75 74 75 74 72 68 66 62 59 53 V (KT) LAND 60 62 63 65 67 70 72 75 74 75 74 72 68 66 62 59 53 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 65 65 66 67 68 70 68 65 61 56 51 48 45 42 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 15 14 14 19 14 16 15 14 14 8 4 0 6 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 6 3 4 0 -1 -1 0 2 -1 -1 -3 -1 0 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 360 353 357 345 4 30 44 61 48 49 50 57 75 275 223 226 203 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.8 28.1 28.3 28.6 27.4 26.8 25.9 24.8 24.4 24.6 24.6 23.7 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 149 153 153 146 148 151 138 132 122 110 106 108 109 100 90 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.3 -53.9 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 78 79 82 80 82 81 77 74 70 66 60 59 52 50 45 42 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 21 22 24 25 27 27 28 29 29 28 28 26 25 21 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -41 -30 -23 -11 -20 -19 -13 4 12 20 33 58 75 84 95 88 200 MB DIV 108 115 124 123 116 64 52 2 43 36 29 22 21 -1 6 0 16 700-850 TADV -5 -10 -12 -15 -19 -17 0 0 1 2 1 3 0 0 3 5 6 LAND (KM) 617 642 665 686 722 800 781 844 926 1044 1192 1337 1450 1560 1661 1779 1861 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.9 16.9 17.8 18.3 18.6 18.7 18.8 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.4 107.2 108.0 109.0 109.9 111.8 113.9 116.0 117.9 119.9 121.8 123.7 125.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 10 9 10 9 9 8 9 9 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 17 25 21 9 13 14 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 9. 11. 12. 12. 9. 8. 5. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 15. 14. 15. 14. 12. 8. 6. 2. -1. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 13.6 106.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/12/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.45 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.78 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.21 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 24.6% 21.6% 21.2% 12.6% 16.6% 12.4% 8.3% Logistic: 0.7% 2.9% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7% 1.2% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.9% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 4.3% 9.8% 8.0% 7.4% 4.2% 5.8% 4.5% 3.2% DTOPS: 8.0% 18.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 9.0% 3.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/12/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##