* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/21/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 51 47 44 39 35 30 23 21 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 53 51 47 44 39 35 30 23 21 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 52 48 45 42 36 31 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 11 7 13 17 16 22 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 8 11 9 5 4 2 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 193 189 197 186 156 177 178 200 203 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.1 26.1 25.2 25.0 23.7 22.6 22.8 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 124 115 113 100 87 89 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 5 4 5 4 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 58 60 57 55 53 46 45 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 16 15 14 15 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 26 31 7 -9 7 -3 5 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 8 -7 -12 15 0 -4 36 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -6 -20 -15 -3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 112 134 189 177 181 315 428 510 490 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.6 25.2 25.9 26.5 27.8 28.8 29.5 30.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.8 113.6 114.4 115.2 116.1 118.2 120.1 121.4 122.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 10 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -7. -8. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -6. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -8. -11. -16. -20. -25. -32. -34. -36. -37. -40. -43. -45. -49. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 23.9 112.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/21/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.27 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 290.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.58 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/21/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##