* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/20/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 70 70 67 64 56 53 49 43 35 25 17 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 72 70 70 67 64 56 53 49 43 35 25 17 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 70 67 64 62 56 49 42 36 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 6 3 6 7 11 13 16 19 22 23 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 7 10 7 5 11 4 4 0 6 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 259 277 230 137 179 143 163 168 179 195 189 193 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.7 26.8 24.7 24.5 23.0 22.6 22.3 22.3 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 143 143 140 131 110 108 92 87 83 81 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -50.4 -50.8 -50.7 -51.0 -50.6 -51.2 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 7 8 5 5 2 2 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 65 66 63 61 60 55 56 49 48 45 43 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 22 23 20 19 16 17 16 15 13 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 51 37 41 38 31 13 14 4 19 31 36 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 76 68 44 43 21 -2 -2 5 -19 20 18 28 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -9 -6 -2 -1 -2 -9 -8 -4 -2 1 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 133 91 90 114 129 133 215 247 384 472 522 497 449 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.2 22.7 23.1 23.5 24.3 25.4 26.6 27.6 28.6 29.6 30.3 30.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.5 110.9 111.6 112.2 113.5 115.2 117.1 118.9 120.5 121.6 121.9 121.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 8 10 10 9 8 5 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 5 5 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -8. -13. -17. -21. -25. -30. -32. -34. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. -2. -3. -7. -7. -10. -11. -14. -18. -19. -17. -16. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -5. -8. -11. -19. -22. -26. -32. -40. -50. -58. -59. -60. -62. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 21.7 110.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/20/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.24 2.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.68 5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.43 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 -4.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 20.4% 19.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 7.0% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/20/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##