* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/18/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 121 123 120 117 108 101 91 82 74 65 57 49 41 33 25 18 V (KT) LAND 115 121 123 120 117 108 101 91 82 74 65 57 49 41 33 25 18 V (KT) LGEM 115 120 121 118 113 102 92 82 71 59 49 41 34 29 24 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 6 9 6 4 3 6 7 12 12 16 19 21 22 25 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 1 0 6 6 9 6 6 4 5 1 0 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 213 197 241 240 237 258 214 182 187 180 204 181 200 196 212 201 195 SST (C) 28.5 28.8 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.3 27.1 26.4 25.4 25.0 23.9 23.1 22.4 22.0 21.4 21.1 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 154 149 144 135 134 127 117 113 101 93 85 80 73 68 68 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.4 -50.7 -50.3 -50.1 -49.7 -49.9 -49.9 -49.8 -49.8 -50.2 -50.6 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 7 6 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 75 73 73 71 65 60 58 59 56 56 51 50 43 37 30 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 26 25 26 25 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 37 50 58 49 70 73 66 68 55 47 33 31 45 43 39 29 14 200 MB DIV 89 89 83 74 96 64 38 12 -6 4 2 15 13 0 14 -6 0 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 -3 -3 -4 -1 -5 -5 -3 -1 3 2 3 2 3 3 LAND (KM) 365 393 378 312 255 227 236 226 335 336 379 485 589 588 567 566 602 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.1 20.7 21.6 22.6 23.6 24.4 25.5 26.9 28.1 29.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.4 109.1 109.8 110.3 110.7 111.7 112.7 114.1 115.7 117.2 118.7 120.4 122.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 6 7 8 9 9 10 9 8 6 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 12 14 16 14 9 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -11. -20. -29. -37. -45. -52. -58. -62. -66. -70. -76. -82. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 1. 0. 3. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 8. 5. 2. -7. -14. -24. -33. -41. -49. -58. -66. -74. -82. -90. -97. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 18.3 108.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/18/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 264.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.4% 25.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.2% 2.7% 1.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.2% 9.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/18/20 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##