* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENIEVE EP122020 08/18/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 123 126 125 120 112 103 94 86 77 67 58 47 39 29 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 115 123 126 125 120 112 103 94 86 77 67 58 47 39 29 18 N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 122 125 122 117 104 95 85 73 60 49 41 35 29 24 20 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 4 7 10 5 5 10 13 15 16 13 20 22 27 32 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -1 0 0 1 7 5 7 9 3 8 1 7 -3 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 235 198 187 235 238 236 209 180 198 185 201 185 195 198 216 216 209 SST (C) 28.5 28.9 28.9 28.4 27.7 27.1 26.9 26.3 25.1 24.9 23.6 22.9 22.3 21.4 20.7 20.5 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 153 148 140 134 132 126 113 112 98 91 85 75 67 62 62 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -51.0 -50.9 -50.1 -50.3 -49.6 -50.0 -49.9 -49.9 -49.7 -50.1 -50.7 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 6 7 5 7 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 78 73 73 70 71 67 61 55 61 59 58 53 49 42 38 31 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 24 26 25 27 27 26 26 23 21 19 16 15 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 36 43 55 61 52 82 55 54 53 40 51 38 60 58 50 36 16 200 MB DIV 93 84 90 75 74 99 44 -1 -10 -3 0 18 16 0 9 -3 1 700-850 TADV -2 1 2 -1 -3 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 0 1 4 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 365 402 378 311 259 247 223 221 313 318 392 498 602 573 587 601 620 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.2 20.8 21.8 22.9 24.0 24.7 25.8 27.1 28.4 29.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.4 109.2 110.0 110.6 111.1 112.1 113.0 114.3 115.8 117.3 118.9 120.7 122.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 10 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 6 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 12 14 16 11 6 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 19 CX,CY: -14/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -11. -20. -30. -38. -46. -53. -59. -63. -67. -72. -78. -85. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. -2. -5. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 10. 9. 5. 1. -2. -5. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. -1. -4. -6. -9. -9. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 11. 10. 5. -3. -12. -21. -29. -38. -48. -57. -68. -76. -86. -97.-106. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 18.3 108.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122020 GENIEVE 08/18/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 283.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.59 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.16 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 15.6% 6.0% 5.4% 3.3% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 15.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 19.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENIEVE 08/18/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##