* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/18/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 98 105 111 115 120 116 107 93 81 69 57 47 37 28 19 N/A V (KT) LAND 90 98 105 111 115 120 116 107 93 81 69 57 47 37 28 19 N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 97 102 106 109 110 104 95 86 70 56 44 34 27 22 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 7 7 4 4 6 1 5 10 13 18 14 19 19 22 26 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -7 -5 -4 -4 -4 0 4 4 9 4 9 5 8 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 200 241 231 184 238 264 229 196 183 191 186 200 183 199 204 210 215 SST (C) 29.9 29.2 29.1 29.3 28.9 27.7 26.9 26.8 25.9 23.6 23.6 22.0 21.5 21.1 20.5 20.0 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 166 158 156 158 153 140 132 131 122 98 98 82 76 71 65 59 58 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -52.3 -51.7 -52.1 -51.6 -51.2 -50.7 -50.2 -50.0 -49.7 -50.1 -49.8 -49.8 -49.8 -50.1 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 78 73 74 73 70 63 58 58 58 56 55 50 50 42 38 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 26 28 28 31 31 29 27 25 23 21 19 17 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 25 35 45 58 66 65 68 63 57 54 46 38 40 48 48 30 15 200 MB DIV 139 110 83 80 73 73 55 33 8 0 -2 6 9 9 -2 11 -17 700-850 TADV -8 -1 1 -1 -3 -1 -4 -4 -5 -4 3 -1 3 2 7 3 2 LAND (KM) 312 331 370 411 345 249 236 214 259 307 355 472 550 581 562 561 538 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.8 18.5 19.2 19.8 20.9 22.0 23.1 24.0 25.1 26.2 27.5 28.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.6 108.6 109.4 110.2 111.1 112.1 113.3 114.7 116.3 118.1 119.8 121.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 10 9 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 28 19 15 17 17 6 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 16 CX,CY: -11/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -6. -11. -16. -21. -26. -31. -35. -40. -45. -51. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 7. 7. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 6. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 21. 25. 30. 26. 17. 3. -9. -21. -33. -43. -53. -62. -71. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 17.0 106.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/18/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.25 3.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 8.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.82 9.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.67 8.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 5.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 6.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 -6.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.38 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 39% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 39.4% 51.1% 39.1% 31.3% 24.6% 23.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 27.1% 31.9% 23.3% 16.7% 14.6% 6.6% 1.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 36.8% 34.9% 39.7% 28.1% 4.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 34.4% 39.3% 34.1% 25.4% 14.7% 10.3% 0.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 40.0% 57.0% 48.0% 48.0% 39.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/18/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##