* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/18/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 95 104 112 119 125 122 114 103 90 75 65 55 45 36 25 N/A V (KT) LAND 85 95 104 112 119 125 122 114 103 90 75 65 55 45 36 25 N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 95 103 109 114 120 116 106 95 80 63 52 42 34 28 22 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 2 4 4 3 3 3 8 9 7 11 11 18 21 28 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -5 -5 -3 -2 3 3 7 8 3 9 0 6 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 91 141 183 210 117 235 242 166 182 174 190 198 180 204 205 212 211 SST (C) 30.2 29.9 29.3 29.2 29.3 28.7 27.4 26.9 26.5 24.4 23.6 23.2 21.7 21.2 21.0 20.4 19.8 POT. INT. (KT) 169 166 158 156 157 151 137 132 128 106 98 95 79 72 69 64 60 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -51.4 -51.2 -50.3 -50.3 -49.8 -49.9 -49.6 -49.6 -49.7 -50.1 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 6 8 5 6 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 78 78 75 76 73 67 63 56 57 55 54 49 47 40 38 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 23 26 27 27 27 29 28 27 23 21 19 17 15 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 27 28 38 46 58 57 82 71 72 61 47 44 28 45 40 43 25 200 MB DIV 150 158 127 91 87 70 96 45 30 -6 1 16 13 16 11 32 13 700-850 TADV -9 -5 -1 0 0 0 0 -8 0 -4 -9 -1 -4 2 4 1 -9 LAND (KM) 328 328 358 376 398 303 207 223 211 291 312 371 529 616 579 554 537 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.8 17.6 18.2 18.8 20.2 21.4 22.4 23.7 24.7 25.4 26.6 28.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.3 106.6 107.8 108.5 109.1 110.4 111.2 112.3 114.0 115.4 116.7 118.5 121.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 11 9 9 8 7 9 9 8 8 12 11 7 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 29 29 21 16 16 17 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 18 CX,CY: -14/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 59.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -2. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -27. -32. -36. -42. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. 1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 3. 2. 4. 7. 6. 4. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 16. 9. 3. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -11. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 19. 27. 34. 40. 37. 29. 18. 5. -10. -20. -30. -40. -49. -60. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 16.0 105.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/18/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.33 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 15.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.89 17.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.80 16.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 9.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 11.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -11.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 5.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 79% is 12.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 79% is 6.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 73% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 66% is 10.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 12.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 44% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 79.1% 78.7% 73.3% 65.6% 53.9% 43.8% 22.6% 0.0% Logistic: 60.8% 63.2% 58.0% 51.2% 42.7% 43.8% 10.8% 0.3% Bayesian: 63.3% 72.4% 83.7% 83.7% 30.3% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 67.7% 71.5% 71.7% 66.8% 42.3% 30.6% 11.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 74.0% 84.0% 83.0% 74.0% 63.0% 22.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/18/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##