* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/16/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 48 56 65 80 97 102 105 100 94 85 74 66 58 50 41 V (KT) LAND 35 41 48 56 65 80 97 102 105 100 94 85 74 66 58 50 41 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 43 48 54 69 88 105 108 98 86 71 56 44 34 27 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 4 3 4 5 7 3 3 5 6 9 15 13 11 16 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 0 0 -5 -4 -3 -3 0 0 3 4 7 5 9 SHEAR DIR 90 100 103 64 108 119 127 155 149 103 135 146 195 199 204 181 183 SST (C) 29.6 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.2 29.8 29.5 29.3 27.6 26.1 25.4 24.3 23.1 22.4 22.0 21.5 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 163 167 168 169 169 164 161 158 140 124 117 106 94 85 81 77 71 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -51.7 -51.2 -50.8 -50.4 -50.2 -50.1 -50.3 -50.2 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 6 7 8 7 6 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 81 82 81 81 82 79 78 75 69 62 58 52 53 53 52 48 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 17 18 20 20 28 28 31 31 31 29 27 26 22 20 17 850 MB ENV VOR 35 37 31 23 25 41 61 79 90 71 69 71 58 57 41 17 21 200 MB DIV 106 127 100 86 101 137 124 89 55 27 30 -5 -12 -7 -2 0 15 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -6 -11 -8 -11 -3 0 -3 -7 -5 -2 9 6 5 10 11 LAND (KM) 456 452 473 474 469 467 476 460 359 373 375 487 536 640 734 811 806 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.4 12.8 13.4 14.0 15.5 17.1 18.8 20.4 21.6 22.5 23.5 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.4 99.9 101.4 102.8 104.2 106.8 108.8 110.6 112.2 113.5 115.0 116.9 119.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 15 15 15 13 12 11 10 9 9 11 11 8 8 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 32 51 44 38 29 23 19 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 414 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 65.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 21. 24. 25. 26. 25. 23. 21. 18. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 12. 16. 21. 22. 22. 18. 14. 11. 7. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 13. 19. 18. 11. 3. -2. -6. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 21. 30. 45. 62. 67. 70. 65. 59. 50. 39. 31. 23. 15. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.9 98.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/16/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 13.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 7.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.85 12.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.71 10.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 6.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.33 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 8.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -10.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 4.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 69% is 5.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 64% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 79% is 13.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 63% is 13.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.7% 68.7% 52.5% 43.2% 33.3% 63.8% 78.7% 62.7% Logistic: 37.0% 85.3% 76.6% 67.9% 29.4% 86.5% 79.9% 58.8% Bayesian: 9.3% 51.4% 53.7% 32.2% 2.1% 59.3% 37.4% 51.6% Consensus: 22.3% 68.5% 60.9% 47.7% 21.6% 69.9% 65.3% 57.7% DTOPS: 13.0% 44.0% 27.0% 12.0% 6.0% 40.0% 45.0% 90.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/16/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##