* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KEVIN EP112021 08/10/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 38 37 32 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 38 37 32 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 35 33 28 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 17 16 16 20 22 17 12 9 6 8 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 3 3 6 0 -1 2 1 1 0 -3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 59 63 44 49 63 68 88 67 65 62 61 107 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.5 27.1 25.6 24.8 22.9 22.2 21.8 21.2 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 146 148 149 135 119 111 92 84 80 74 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 80 79 77 77 73 67 63 55 51 46 41 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 25 25 27 26 22 20 17 16 14 12 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 38 56 83 87 80 88 74 59 47 47 33 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 104 84 91 60 39 5 32 -8 -24 -24 8 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -12 -10 -8 -4 -5 0 -1 4 1 5 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 685 670 668 688 714 730 786 906 1005 1156 1342 1440 1526 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.8 20.9 21.5 22.5 23.3 23.9 24.9 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.3 114.0 114.7 115.3 116.9 118.7 120.7 123.1 125.4 127.7 130.2 132.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 7 8 10 10 11 12 12 12 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 9 9 10 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 11. 10. 7. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. 0. -1. -3. -7. -12. -14. -17. -20. -22. -23. -21. -19. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -8. -14. -21. -27. -34. -40. -46. -51. -50. -49. -48. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.2 112.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112021 KEVIN 08/10/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.56 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.06 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 14.5% 11.8% 10.2% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.9% 3.9% 3.4% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112021 KEVIN 08/10/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##