* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KEVIN EP112021 08/08/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 57 60 64 68 71 67 63 57 51 41 32 25 20 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 50 53 57 60 64 68 71 67 63 57 51 41 32 25 20 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 54 57 60 63 65 63 57 50 44 37 30 23 18 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 21 22 22 22 18 17 13 15 11 9 11 7 5 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 1 4 -1 3 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 63 58 57 57 53 67 51 79 64 67 54 59 33 67 73 111 140 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.3 28.9 28.3 26.6 25.9 24.2 23.0 22.1 21.8 21.2 21.1 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 153 152 150 147 153 147 130 122 105 93 84 81 74 72 77 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 83 83 82 83 82 85 82 83 78 73 68 61 57 52 50 47 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 21 23 25 27 29 27 26 25 25 21 18 15 12 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 20 31 31 32 38 42 77 71 77 82 90 66 53 48 47 43 21 200 MB DIV 98 130 136 131 108 97 82 16 28 15 -12 -17 -5 -4 -1 -5 -14 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -5 -5 -8 -9 -9 -8 -2 -5 1 -2 2 6 0 12 2 LAND (KM) 623 666 709 738 733 706 724 780 807 897 973 1093 1272 1493 1639 1781 1921 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.8 15.9 16.2 16.5 17.3 18.1 18.9 19.9 20.8 21.6 22.3 23.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.4 110.0 110.6 111.2 111.7 113.2 114.7 116.4 118.1 119.9 121.8 124.0 126.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 12 12 14 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 15 13 12 9 13 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 10. 7. 3. -1. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 18. 21. 17. 13. 7. 1. -9. -18. -25. -30. -34. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.7 109.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112021 KEVIN 08/08/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.57 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.80 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.02 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 20.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.79 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 22.7% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 1.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 8.5% 6.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 8.0% 17.0% 11.0% 9.0% 5.0% 7.0% 5.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112021 KEVIN 08/08/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##