* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP112020 08/17/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 23 20 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 13 15 12 10 7 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 0 -1 3 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 266 284 299 293 281 227 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.6 22.6 22.3 22.4 22.4 22.6 23.1 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 90 86 86 86 88 94 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -51.0 -51.1 -51.5 -51.8 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 52 49 48 47 41 35 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -17 -32 -27 -29 -41 -8 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 1 -12 -14 -23 -6 -9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 4 6 7 10 8 2 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1012 1113 1224 1328 1432 1577 1788 2024 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.4 23.8 23.9 24.0 23.7 22.9 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.5 125.0 126.4 127.6 128.7 130.7 132.9 135.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 12 11 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 7. 4. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -16. -18. -18. -18. -18. -19. -20. -22. -22. -22. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.9 123.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112020 FAUSTO 08/17/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.22 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.65 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112020 FAUSTO 08/17/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##