* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP112020 08/17/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 26 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 26 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 23 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 10 16 19 14 7 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 0 -3 0 -1 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 264 256 247 267 281 287 225 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 23.2 22.4 22.2 22.3 22.2 22.6 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 96 87 85 85 84 88 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -51.0 -51.5 -51.6 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 53 52 50 50 47 38 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 12 11 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 2 -29 -36 -31 -43 -34 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 6 1 -14 -7 7 -19 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 6 12 10 11 6 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 896 979 1080 1191 1306 1444 1630 1811 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.5 24.1 24.4 24.6 24.5 23.9 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.0 123.5 125.0 126.3 127.6 129.7 131.8 133.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 12 11 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 16 CX,CY: -9/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 408 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -15. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -17. -18. -18. -19. -20. -22. -23. -24. -25. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.8 122.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112020 FAUSTO 08/17/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.19 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112020 FAUSTO 08/17/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##